Three views of every health economy
One estimation framework, a fixed-effects panel, across two decades of national accounts and health-financing data, feeding three decision-ready outputs.
Expenditure forecasts
Per-capita health spending paths to 2030 in constant PPP terms, anchored to each country's latest reported data and driven by IMF WEO real-growth projections.
Scenario analysis
Baseline, low-growth, fast-aging and combined downside paths for every country: how spending responds when growth stalls or demographics accelerate.
Financing-risk rankings
A nine-component composite spanning out-of-pocket burden, government financing capacity, fiscal space and projected trajectory, surfacing the systems under most strain.
Explore a country
History from 2015, then four scenario paths to 2030. Constant 2021 international dollars per capita.
Country parameters for societal-perspective and cost-of-illness modelling: labour productivity (World Bank, constant PPP$), labour-force participation and unemployment (ILO modelled estimates), and the share of population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spending (WHO, SDG 3.8.2).
Systems under strain
The top of the risk ranking, from 184 scored countries, now including two direct affordability measures: the share of people already pushed past the WHO catastrophic-spending threshold, and how projected 2030 out-of-pocket costs compare with household capacity to pay. The full table, component detail and country packs are available on request.
| # | Country | Income group | Risk score | Catastrophic % | 2030 OOP vs capacity |
|---|
Catastrophic % = share of population with out-of-pocket health spending above 10% of household budget (WHO, SDG 3.8.2, latest year per country). 2030 OOP vs capacity = our projected out-of-pocket spend per person in 2030 against the catastrophic threshold; above 100% means the average person would cross it.